If CHA visited MEM today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.8 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

4.7

106.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

115.7

Defensive Rating

112.6

98.2

Pace

103.7

CHA (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

CHA wins

2026-03-21 CHA 101 @ MEM 124 MEM W

2026-01-28 CHA 112 @ MEM 97 CHA W

2025-04-08 CHA 124 @ MEM 100 CHA W

2025-01-22 CHA 120 @ MEM 132 MEM W

2024-03-13 CHA 110 @ MEM 98 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score