If CHA visited LAL today, our model would lean Los Angeles Lakers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.3 points for LAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

1.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

115.0

115.7

Defensive Rating

113.8

98.2

Pace

98.3

CHA (Away) LAL (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

LAL 57-35 L4 Avg margin last 5: -8.8

L OKC

W HOU

Head-to-Head History

LAL wins

CHA wins

2026-01-15 CHA 135 @ LAL 117 CHA W

2025-11-10 CHA 121 @ LAL 111 CHA W

2025-02-19 CHA 100 @ LAL 97 CHA W

2025-01-27 CHA 112 @ LAL 107 CHA W

2024-02-05 CHA 124 @ LAL 118 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score