If CHA visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 61.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.7 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

4.6

106.7

Offensive Rating

114.9

115.7

Defensive Rating

110.3

98.2

Pace

99.0

CHA (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

CHA wins

2026-02-19 CHA 105 @ HOU 101 CHA W

2026-02-05 CHA 109 @ HOU 99 CHA W

2024-12-23 CHA 114 @ HOU 101 CHA W

2024-10-23 CHA 110 @ HOU 105 CHA W

2024-01-26 CHA 138 @ HOU 104 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score