If CHA visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.9 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

3.8

106.7

Offensive Rating

118.9

115.7

Defensive Rating

115.1

98.2

Pace

100.7

CHA (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

CHA wins

2026-01-18 CHA 110 @ DEN 87 CHA W

2025-12-07 CHA 115 @ DEN 106 CHA W

2025-02-20 CHA 115 @ DEN 129 DEN W

2025-02-01 CHA 107 @ DEN 104 CHA W

2024-01-01 CHA 93 @ DEN 111 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score