If CHA visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +18.3 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

9.2

106.7

Offensive Rating

121.0

115.7

Defensive Rating

111.8

98.2

Pace

100.3

CHA (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

CHA wins

2026-02-20 CHA 118 @ CLE 113 CHA W

2026-01-21 CHA 94 @ CLE 87 CHA W

2025-12-22 CHA 132 @ CLE 139 CLE W

2025-12-14 CHA 119 @ CLE 111 CHA W

2025-03-07 CHA 118 @ CLE 117 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score