If CHA visited ATL today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.0 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.1

Net Rating

-1.1

106.7

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.7

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.2

Pace

103.4

CHA (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

CHA wins

2026-02-11 CHA 107 @ ATL 110 ATL W

2026-02-07 CHA 126 @ ATL 119 CHA W

2025-12-18 CHA 126 @ ATL 133 ATL W

2025-11-23 CHA 110 @ ATL 113 ATL W

2025-03-18 CHA 134 @ ATL 102 CHA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score