If BKN visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.5 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-7.3

Net Rating

3.2

108.1

Offensive Rating

114.2

115.4

Defensive Rating

111.0

96.7

Pace

99.4

BKN (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

BKN wins

2026-03-25 BKN 106 @ GSW 109 GSW W

2025-12-29 BKN 120 @ GSW 107 BKN W

2025-03-06 BKN 121 @ GSW 119 BKN W

2024-11-25 BKN 128 @ GSW 120 BKN W

2024-02-05 BKN 109 @ GSW 98 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score