If BKN visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +11.1 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-7.3

Net Rating

3.8

108.1

Offensive Rating

118.9

115.4

Defensive Rating

115.1

96.7

Pace

100.7

BKN (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

BKN wins

2026-01-29 BKN 103 @ DEN 107 DEN W

2026-01-04 BKN 115 @ DEN 127 DEN W

2025-01-10 BKN 105 @ DEN 124 DEN W

2024-10-29 BKN 144 @ DEN 139 BKN W

2023-12-22 BKN 122 @ DEN 117 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score