If BKN visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.0 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-7.3

Net Rating

-1.3

108.1

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.4

Defensive Rating

115.0

96.7

Pace

100.2

BKN (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

BKN wins

2026-02-24 BKN 123 @ DAL 114 BKN W

2026-01-12 BKN 105 @ DAL 113 DAL W

2025-12-12 BKN 111 @ DAL 119 DAL W

2025-03-31 BKN 113 @ DAL 109 BKN W

2025-03-24 BKN 120 @ DAL 101 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score