If BKN visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 85.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-7.3

Net Rating

-1.1

108.1

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.4

Defensive Rating

114.8

96.7

Pace

103.4

BKN (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

BKN wins

2026-04-03 BKN 141 @ ATL 107 BKN W

2026-03-12 BKN 97 @ ATL 108 ATL W

2026-02-22 BKN 104 @ ATL 115 ATL W

2025-10-29 BKN 117 @ ATL 112 BKN W

2025-04-10 BKN 133 @ ATL 109 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score