If BOS visited WAS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -21.6 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-12.2

119.5

Offensive Rating

105.8

110.1

Defensive Rating

118.0

96.6

Pace

101.8

BOS (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

BOS wins

2026-03-14 BOS 100 @ WAS 111 WAS W

2025-12-04 BOS 146 @ WAS 101 BOS W

2025-11-05 BOS 107 @ WAS 136 WAS W

2025-04-06 BOS 90 @ WAS 124 WAS W

2024-12-15 BOS 112 @ WAS 98 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score