If BOS visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.1 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-2.7

119.5

Offensive Rating

111.0

110.1

Defensive Rating

113.7

96.6

Pace

99.5

BOS (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

BOS wins

2026-01-26 BOS 94 @ POR 102 POR W

2025-12-28 BOS 108 @ POR 114 POR W

2025-03-23 BOS 129 @ POR 116 BOS W

2025-03-05 BOS 118 @ POR 128 POR W

2024-04-07 BOS 107 @ POR 124 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score