If BOS visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.4 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-3.0

119.5

Offensive Rating

114.7

110.1

Defensive Rating

117.7

96.6

Pace

98.3

BOS (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

BOS wins

2026-03-16 BOS 112 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2026-02-24 BOS 97 @ PHX 81 BOS W

2025-04-04 BOS 103 @ PHX 123 PHX W

2025-03-26 BOS 132 @ PHX 102 BOS W

2024-03-14 BOS 112 @ PHX 127 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score