If BOS visited NOP today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -18.8 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-9.4

119.5

Offensive Rating

109.7

110.1

Defensive Rating

119.1

96.6

Pace

99.8

BOS (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

BOS wins

2026-04-10 BOS 118 @ NOP 144 NOP W

2025-10-27 BOS 122 @ NOP 90 BOS W

2025-01-31 BOS 118 @ NOP 116 BOS W

2025-01-12 BOS 119 @ NOP 120 NOP W

2024-03-30 BOS 104 @ NOP 92 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score