If BOS visited MEM today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.7 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

4.7

119.5

Offensive Rating

117.2

110.1

Defensive Rating

112.6

96.6

Pace

103.7

BOS (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

BOS wins

2026-03-20 BOS 117 @ MEM 112 BOS W

2025-11-12 BOS 95 @ MEM 131 MEM W

2025-03-31 BOS 117 @ MEM 103 BOS W

2024-12-07 BOS 127 @ MEM 121 BOS W

2024-02-04 BOS 91 @ MEM 131 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score