If BOS visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -7.3 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

2.1

119.5

Offensive Rating

114.6

110.1

Defensive Rating

112.5

96.6

Pace

100.3

BOS (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

BOS wins

2026-01-19 BOS 103 @ DET 104 DET W

2025-12-15 BOS 112 @ DET 105 BOS W

2025-11-26 BOS 114 @ DET 117 DET W

2025-10-26 BOS 113 @ DET 119 DET W

2025-02-26 BOS 97 @ DET 117 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score