If BOS visited CLE today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.2 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

9.2

119.5

Offensive Rating

121.0

110.1

Defensive Rating

111.8

96.6

Pace

100.3

BOS (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

BOS wins

2026-03-08 BOS 109 @ CLE 98 BOS W

2025-11-30 BOS 117 @ CLE 115 BOS W

2025-10-29 BOS 105 @ CLE 125 CLE W

2025-02-28 BOS 123 @ CLE 116 BOS W

2025-02-04 BOS 112 @ CLE 105 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score