If BOS visited CHI today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -11.0 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-1.6

119.5

Offensive Rating

113.2

110.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

96.6

Pace

103.6

BOS (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

BOS wins

2026-02-11 BOS 105 @ CHI 124 CHI W

2026-01-24 BOS 111 @ CHI 114 CHI W

2026-01-05 BOS 101 @ CHI 115 CHI W

2025-01-29 BOS 100 @ CHI 122 CHI W

2024-12-21 BOS 123 @ CHI 98 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score