If BOS visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -10.5 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

9.4

Net Rating

-1.1

119.5

Offensive Rating

113.7

110.1

Defensive Rating

114.8

96.6

Pace

103.4

BOS (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

BOS wins

2026-03-30 BOS 102 @ ATL 112 ATL W

2026-03-27 BOS 102 @ ATL 109 ATL W

2026-01-28 BOS 117 @ ATL 106 BOS W

2026-01-17 BOS 132 @ ATL 106 BOS W

2025-01-18 BOS 119 @ ATL 115 BOS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score