If ATL visited UTA today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.1 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-9.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

119.4

103.4

Pace

100.8

ATL (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

ATL wins

2026-02-05 ATL 119 @ UTA 121 UTA W

2025-11-13 ATL 132 @ UTA 122 ATL W

2025-04-06 ATL 134 @ UTA 147 UTA W

2025-01-07 ATL 124 @ UTA 121 ATL W

2024-03-15 ATL 122 @ UTA 124 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score