If ATL visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.0 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-4.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

109.6

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.6

103.4

Pace

100.6

ATL (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

ATL wins

2026-01-05 ATL 100 @ TOR 118 TOR W

2026-01-03 ATL 117 @ TOR 134 TOR W

2025-11-07 ATL 109 @ TOR 97 ATL W

2025-10-22 ATL 138 @ TOR 118 ATL W

2025-01-25 ATL 117 @ TOR 94 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score