If ATL visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-2.8

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.5

114.8

Defensive Rating

116.3

103.4

Pace

100.1

ATL (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

ATL wins

2025-12-19 ATL 126 @ SAS 98 ATL W

2025-11-20 ATL 126 @ SAS 135 SAS W

2025-02-05 ATL 126 @ SAS 125 ATL W

2024-12-19 ATL 126 @ SAS 133 SAS W

2024-01-15 ATL 99 @ SAS 109 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score