If ATL visited SAC today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.7 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

0.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.3

103.4

Pace

98.9

ATL (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

ATL wins

2026-03-28 ATL 113 @ SAC 123 SAC W

2025-11-12 ATL 133 @ SAC 100 ATL W

2024-11-18 ATL 109 @ SAC 108 ATL W

2024-11-01 ATL 123 @ SAC 115 ATL W

2024-01-22 ATL 107 @ SAC 122 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score