If ATL visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.6 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-2.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.7

103.4

Pace

99.5

ATL (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

ATL wins

2026-03-01 ATL 101 @ POR 135 POR W

2026-01-15 ATL 101 @ POR 117 POR W

2025-04-01 ATL 127 @ POR 113 ATL W

2024-11-17 ATL 110 @ POR 114 POR W

2024-03-27 ATL 106 @ POR 120 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score