If ATL visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.9 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-3.0

113.7

Offensive Rating

114.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

117.7

103.4

Pace

98.3

ATL (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

ATL wins

2026-01-23 ATL 103 @ PHX 110 PHX W

2025-11-16 ATL 124 @ PHX 122 ATL W

2025-01-14 ATL 117 @ PHX 122 PHX W

2025-01-09 ATL 115 @ PHX 123 PHX W

2024-03-21 ATL 115 @ PHX 128 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score