If ATL visited PHI today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -5.2 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-6.3

113.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

117.3

103.4

Pace

98.1

ATL (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

ATL wins

2026-03-07 ATL 116 @ PHI 125 PHI W

2026-02-19 ATL 117 @ PHI 107 ATL W

2025-12-14 ATL 117 @ PHI 120 PHI W

2025-11-30 ATL 142 @ PHI 134 ATL W

2025-04-11 ATL 124 @ PHI 110 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score