If ATL visited ORL today, our model would lean Orlando Magic with a 65.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.9 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-0.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

109.1

103.4

Pace

96.5

ATL (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

ATL wins

2026-04-01 ATL 130 @ ORL 101 ATL W

2026-03-16 ATL 112 @ ORL 124 ORL W

2025-11-04 ATL 112 @ ORL 127 ORL W

2025-10-24 ATL 111 @ ORL 107 ATL W

2025-04-13 ATL 105 @ ORL 117 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score