If ATL visited NOP today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -8.3 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-9.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

109.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

119.1

103.4

Pace

99.8

ATL (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

ATL wins

2026-01-07 ATL 100 @ NOP 117 NOP W

2025-11-22 ATL 115 @ NOP 98 ATL W

2024-12-02 ATL 112 @ NOP 124 NOP W

2024-11-03 ATL 126 @ NOP 111 ATL W

2024-03-10 ATL 116 @ NOP 103 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score