If ATL visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.1 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

5.0

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.7

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.8

103.4

Pace

98.0

ATL (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

ATL wins

2026-02-09 ATL 116 @ MIN 138 MIN W

2025-12-31 ATL 102 @ MIN 126 MIN W

2025-01-27 ATL 92 @ MIN 100 MIN W

2024-12-23 ATL 104 @ MIN 117 MIN W

2024-04-12 ATL 106 @ MIN 109 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score