If ATL visited MIL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.5 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

2.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.1

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.7

103.4

Pace

99.9

ATL (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

ATL wins

2026-03-14 ATL 99 @ MIL 122 MIL W

2026-03-04 ATL 131 @ MIL 113 ATL W

2026-01-19 ATL 112 @ MIL 110 ATL W

2025-03-30 ATL 145 @ MIL 124 ATL W

2025-03-04 ATL 127 @ MIL 121 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score