If ATL visited MEM today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.8 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

4.7

113.7

Offensive Rating

117.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

112.6

103.4

Pace

103.7

ATL (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

ATL wins

2026-03-23 ATL 107 @ MEM 146 MEM W

2026-01-21 ATL 124 @ MEM 122 ATL W

2025-03-03 ATL 132 @ MEM 130 ATL W

2024-12-21 ATL 128 @ MEM 112 ATL W

2024-03-08 ATL 99 @ MEM 92 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score