If ATL visited IND today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.2 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

2.1

113.7

Offensive Rating

115.4

114.8

Defensive Rating

113.3

103.4

Pace

100.8

ATL (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

ATL wins

2026-01-31 ATL 124 @ IND 129 IND W

2026-01-26 ATL 116 @ IND 132 IND W

2025-10-31 ATL 128 @ IND 108 ATL W

2025-03-08 ATL 118 @ IND 120 IND W

2025-03-06 ATL 118 @ IND 124 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score