If ATL visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.9 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

3.8

113.7

Offensive Rating

118.9

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.1

103.4

Pace

100.7

ATL (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

ATL wins

2026-01-09 ATL 110 @ DEN 87 ATL W

2025-12-05 ATL 134 @ DEN 133 ATL W

2025-01-01 ATL 120 @ DEN 139 DEN W

2024-12-08 ATL 141 @ DEN 111 ATL W

2024-04-06 ATL 110 @ DEN 142 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score