If ATL visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.3 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

9.2

113.7

Offensive Rating

121.0

114.8

Defensive Rating

111.8

103.4

Pace

100.3

ATL (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

ATL wins

2026-04-10 ATL 102 @ CLE 124 CLE W

2026-04-08 ATL 116 @ CLE 122 CLE W

2025-11-28 ATL 123 @ CLE 130 CLE W

2025-11-02 ATL 109 @ CLE 117 CLE W

2025-01-30 ATL 115 @ CLE 137 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score