If ATL visited CHI today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.5 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-1.6

113.7

Offensive Rating

113.2

114.8

Defensive Rating

114.8

103.4

Pace

103.6

ATL (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

ATL wins

2025-12-23 ATL 126 @ CHI 123 ATL W

2025-12-21 ATL 152 @ CHI 150 ATL W

2025-10-27 ATL 123 @ CHI 128 CHI W

2025-01-15 ATL 110 @ CHI 94 ATL W

2024-12-26 ATL 133 @ CHI 141 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score