If ATL visited BKN today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

-7.3

113.7

Offensive Rating

108.1

114.8

Defensive Rating

115.4

103.4

Pace

96.7

ATL (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

ATL wins

2026-04-03 ATL 141 @ BKN 107 ATL W

2026-03-12 ATL 97 @ BKN 108 BKN W

2026-02-22 ATL 104 @ BKN 115 BKN W

2025-10-29 ATL 117 @ BKN 112 ATL W

2025-04-10 ATL 133 @ BKN 109 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score