If ATL visited BOS today, our model would lean Boston Celtics with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.5 points for BOS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-1.1

Net Rating

9.4

113.7

Offensive Rating

119.5

114.8

Defensive Rating

110.1

103.4

Pace

96.6

ATL (Away) BOS (Home)

Recent Form

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

BOS 59-30 L3 Avg margin last 5: +0.4

L PHI

W PHI

Head-to-Head History

BOS wins

ATL wins

2026-03-30 ATL 102 @ BOS 112 BOS W

2026-03-27 ATL 102 @ BOS 109 BOS W

2026-01-28 ATL 117 @ BOS 106 ATL W

2026-01-17 ATL 132 @ BOS 106 ATL W

2025-01-18 ATL 119 @ BOS 115 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score