Preview: GSW @ HOU — Model vs. Vegas

While Vegas lists GSW -6.5, our model projects +6.7 (77% confidence). Key factor: No Edge - Model: -6.7, Vegas: -6.5, Diff: 0.2pts (need >3.0).

Archetype: Competitive

AI Edge Analysis

Model Line

-6.73

Vegas Line

-6.5

The Edge

-0.23 pts

GSW Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

HOU Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

114.2

Offensive Rating

114.9

111.0

Defensive Rating

110.3

+3.2

Net Rating

+4.6

GSW HOU

No meetings this season. Last season:

Previous season: 2-1

2026-04-05 GSW 116, HOU 117 away

2026-03-05 HOU 113, GSW 115 home

2025-11-26 GSW 100, HOU 104 away

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Preview: GSW @ HOU — Model vs. Vegas.

Vegas opens GSW -6.5, but our model sees +6.7. That gap of +0.2 points is the primary reason this matchup has drawn attention.

The model sees a 77% probability in favor of GSW, with an edge of +0.2 points vs the Vegas line.

No Edge - Model: -6.7, Vegas: -6.5, Diff: 0.2pts (need >3.0)