Preview: IND @ DAL — Model vs. Vegas

While Vegas lists IND -3.5, our model projects +0.4 (52% confidence). Key factor: LOCK VISITOR (IND) - Model: -0.4, Vegas: -3.5, Edge: 3.1pts.

Archetype: Competitive

AI Edge Analysis

Model Line

-0.36

Vegas Line

-3.5

The Edge

3.14 pts

IND Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

DAL Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

115.4

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.3

Defensive Rating

115.0

+2.1

Net Rating

-1.3

IND DAL

No meetings this season. Last season:

Previous season: 2-0

2026-02-22 IND 130, DAL 134 away

2025-10-29 DAL 107, IND 105 home

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Preview: IND @ DAL — Model vs. Vegas.

Vegas opens IND -3.5, but our model sees +0.4. That gap of +3.1 points is the primary reason this matchup has drawn attention.

The model sees a 52% probability in favor of IND, with an edge of +3.1 points vs the Vegas line.

LOCK VISITOR (IND) - Model: -0.4, Vegas: -3.5, Edge: 3.1pts