Preview: DEN @ IND — Model vs. Vegas

While Vegas lists IND +7.5, our model projects -1.9 (58% confidence). Key factor: LOCK HOME (IND) - Model: +1.9, Vegas: +7.5, Edge: 5.6pts.

Archetype: Competitive

AI Edge Analysis

Model Line

+1.93

Vegas Line

7.5

The Edge

-5.57 pts

DEN Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

IND Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

118.9

Offensive Rating

115.4

115.1

Defensive Rating

113.3

+3.8

Net Rating

+2.1

DEN IND

No meetings this season. Last season:

Previous season: 0-2

2025-12-03 IND 120, DEN 135 home

2025-11-08 DEN 117, IND 100 away

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Preview: DEN @ IND — Model vs. Vegas.

Vegas opens IND +7.5, but our model sees -1.9. That gap of +5.6 points is the primary reason this matchup has drawn attention.

The model sees a 58% probability in favor of IND, with an edge of +5.6 points vs the Vegas line.

LOCK HOME (IND) - Model: +1.9, Vegas: +7.5, Edge: 5.6pts