Preview: DEN @ PHX — Model vs. Vegas

While Vegas lists PHX +4.5, our model projects +0.4 (52% confidence). Key factor: LOCK HOME (PHX) - Model: -0.4, Vegas: +4.5, Edge: 4.9pts.

Archetype: Competitive

AI Edge Analysis

Model Line

-0.36

Vegas Line

4.5

The Edge

-4.86 pts

DEN Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

PHX Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

118.9

Offensive Rating

114.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

117.7

+3.8

Net Rating

-3.0

DEN PHX

No meetings this season. Last season:

Previous season: 0-3

2026-03-24 PHX 123, DEN 125 home

2025-11-29 PHX 112, DEN 130 home

2025-10-25 DEN 133, PHX 111 away

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Preview: DEN @ PHX — Model vs. Vegas.

Vegas opens PHX +4.5, but our model sees +0.4. That gap of +4.9 points is the primary reason this matchup has drawn attention.

The model sees a 52% probability in favor of PHX, with an edge of +4.9 points vs the Vegas line.

LOCK HOME (PHX) - Model: -0.4, Vegas: +4.5, Edge: 4.9pts