Preview: DEN @ NOP — Model vs. Vegas

While Vegas lists DEN +4.5, our model projects -1.9 (58% confidence). Key factor: No Edge - Model: +1.9, Vegas: +4.5, Diff: 2.6pts (need >3.0).

Archetype: Competitive

AI Edge Analysis

Model Line

+1.93

Vegas Line

4.5

The Edge

-2.57 pts

DEN Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

NOP Last 5: 0-0

Avg margin: +0.0

118.9

Offensive Rating

109.7

115.1

Defensive Rating

119.1

+3.8

Net Rating

-9.4

DEN NOP

No meetings this season. Last season:

Previous season: 0-3

2026-01-13 NOP 116, DEN 122 home

2025-11-19 NOP 118, DEN 125 home

2025-10-29 DEN 122, NOP 88 away

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Preview: DEN @ NOP — Model vs. Vegas.

Vegas opens DEN +4.5, but our model sees -1.9. That gap of +2.6 points is the primary reason this matchup has drawn attention.

The model sees a 58% probability in favor of DEN, with an edge of +2.6 points vs the Vegas line.

No Edge - Model: +1.9, Vegas: +4.5, Diff: 2.6pts (need >3.0)