While Vegas lists BOS by -6.5, our model projects -3.1 (Prob 63%). Key factor: LOCK HOME (BOS) - Predicted: +11.5, Vegas: -6.5, Edge: 5.0pts.
Upset Alert: Why MIA Could Shock BOS Tonight.
Vegas opens BOS -6.5, but our model sees -3.1. That gap (+3.4 points) is the primary reason this matchup has gained attention.
Why this could happen: the data show a meaningful advantage that Vegas appears to have missed — look at the rest and recent defensive trends in the model's inputs.
LOCK HOME (BOS) - Predicted: +11.5, Vegas: -6.5, Edge: 5.0pts
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