NBA Over/Under Betting Guide
How to bet totals and find value
What Are Over/Under Bets?
An over/under bet (also called a “total”) is a wager on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a number set by oddsmakers.
Example
Lakers vs Celtics – Total: 224.5
- Over 224.5: Combined score of 225+ points wins
- Under 224.5: Combined score of 224 or fewer wins
If the final score is Lakers 118, Celtics 110 (total: 228), the Over wins.
Key Factors Affecting Totals
1. Pace of Play
Pace measures possessions per game. High-pace teams like the Pacers and Hawks create more scoring opportunities.
| Pace Rating | Possessions/Game | Impact on Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Fast (Top 5) | 102+ | Lean Over |
| Average | 98-101 | Neutral |
| Slow (Bottom 5) | Below 98 | Lean Under |
2. Defensive Efficiency
Teams with top-10 defenses consistently push games under the total. Check defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).
3. Rest and Fatigue
Tired teams often play worse defense, leading to higher-scoring games. Back-to-backs favor the Over.
4. Injuries to Key Players
Star players out can dramatically impact totals. Losing a 25+ PPG scorer often drops the total 3-5 points.
Totals Betting Strategies
Pro Tips
- Weather the narrative: Public loves Overs – fade when appropriate
- First quarter totals: Less variance than full-game totals
- Track referee tendencies: Some crews call more fouls (more free throws)
- Late-season motivation: Teams tanking play less defense
When to Bet Overs
- Both teams in top 10 for pace
- Poor defenses (bottom 10 defensive rating)
- Back-to-back games for one or both teams
- High-scoring recent matchup history
When to Bet Unders
- Elite defensive matchup (top 5 vs top 5)
- Slow-paced teams
- Playoff games (intensity increases, pace drops)
- Public heavily on Over (line value on Under)
Start Betting Smarter
Ready to apply these strategies? Check out our daily NBA picks for totals recommendations, or compare odds at our recommended sportsbooks.
Start Betting Totals Smarter
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