NBA Point Spreads Explained
Everything you need to know about betting the spread
What Is a Point Spread?
A point spread is a number set by oddsmakers that represents the expected margin of victory. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) to cover.
Example
Lakers -5.5 vs Celtics +5.5
- If you bet Lakers -5.5, they must win by 6+ points
- If you bet Celtics +5.5, they can lose by up to 5 points (or win)
How to Read Point Spreads
Point spreads are displayed with a minus (-) for favorites and plus (+) for underdogs:
| Team | Spread | Odds | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | -5.5 | -110 | Must win by 6+ points |
| Celtics | +5.5 | -110 | Can lose by 5 or less |
Key Factors for Spread Betting
1. Home Court Advantage
NBA home teams win approximately 55-60% of games. Oddsmakers typically give home teams a 2-3 point advantage built into the spread.
2. Back-to-Back Games
Teams playing on consecutive nights typically see a 2-3% drop in performance. Always check the schedule for rest advantages.
3. Injuries
Star player absences can swing a spread by 3-5 points. Monitor injury reports before placing bets.
4. Pace of Play
High-pace teams create more possessions, leading to more variance in final margins. Slower teams tend to play closer games.
Spread Betting Strategies
Pro Tips
- Buy the half-point on key numbers (3, 7, 10) when available
- Fade the public – heavy public action often inflates spreads
- Track ATS records – some teams consistently cover, others don’t
- Consider motivation – playoff implications matter late season
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Chasing losses – Stick to your bankroll management
- Ignoring rest days – Fatigue is real in the NBA
- Overvaluing recent results – Small sample sizes can be misleading
- Betting every game – Quality over quantity wins long-term
Ready to Start Betting?
Now that you understand point spreads, check out our daily NBA picks for data-driven spread recommendations, or see our top-rated sportsbooks to find the best odds.
Ready to Bet Spreads?
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